This question relates to concepts covered in Sessions 3 and 4. You can use any of the excel files posted online to work through the Quiz.

This question relates to concepts covered in Sessions 3 and 4.

You can use any of the excel files posted online to work through the Quiz.

The Philadelphia Museum’s estimate of the number of visitors to its outdoor sculpture garden during a quarter (3-month period) shows both seasonality and increasing trend.

The de-seasonalized trend line is D = 770 + 10*t,

where t=1 for Jan 2015 (Winter), t=2 for April 2015 (Spring), t=3 for July 2015 (Summer), t=4 for October 2015 (Fall/Autumn), t=5 for January 2016 and so on.

Suppose the seasonal factors are as follows:

What is the forecast of the number of visitors for Winter (January) 2017?

(Hint: First use the trend line to calculate the de-seasonal forecast and then apply the correct seasonal factor for January 2017).