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A law firm has favorable outcomes in 80% of cases that go to court. They have repeated this feat for many, many years. They recruit the top talent and have some of the top lawyers in the country as partners. If we were to use the Skill vs. Luck Model to determine how much of the law firm’s success derives from skill, and how much derives from luck, would we expect the variable aa to be closer to 0 or to 1? The model tells us that Outcome = a*Luck + (1-a)*Skilla∗Luck+(1−a)∗Skill.
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