Week 3 Quiz of Predictive Modeling and Analytics

A soccer team is believed to have a 8 to 2 odds of winning the election. What is the probability of winning for the candidate?

It is estimated that an appointment with a 10 day lag for a male patient has a predicted probability of 0.1372 of cancelling. Compare this with the predicted cancellation probability for a female patient who also has an appointment with a 10 day lag.

Assume that value of gender variable is 1 for male patients and 0 for females. Also, assume that the estimated coefficient for gender is -0.3572 , beta-0 is -1.6515 , beta-1 is .01699.

Given the following table, does the shaded quadrant represent true positives, true negatives, false positives, or false negatives? Assume cancellation is denoted by 1 and arrival is denoted by 0.

Answer Question 4 and Question 5 based on this confusion matrix:

It is believed that we can reverse 60% of cancellations with reminder phone calls. We decided to place reminder calls for all appointments that are predicted to cancel. For how many cases can we reverse cancellation (round to the nearest integer) ?

Assume cancellation is denoted by 1 and arrival is denoted by 0.

Using the confusion matrix and answer found in Question 4….

Assume the cost of placing a reminder call is $1 using an automated system and the benefit of serving a patient is $50. What is the profit of placing reminder calls for all appointments predicted to cancel (round to the nearest integer)?

Consider the following confusion matrix when answering the next two questions.

What is the precision?

What is the accuracy of the model?